Predicting the WSL: Who will end up where?

Sam Kerr of Chelsea takes on Man United defenders
Ona Batlle of Manchester United runs with the ball whilst under pressure from Sam Kerr of Chelsea during the FA Women's Super League match between Chelsea and Manchester United (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

The WSL is coming to its final stages of the season. That means some teams will be very happy and some teams will be disappointed. It’s really close at the top and the bottom of the table, so in this article we will look at the likelihood of the places on the table for all teams. Using FiveThirtyEight’s model, we can predict the table.

Predicting WSL: the model

It’s always hard to predict the table, but in all honesty: it’s also fun. It seems that it is harder and harder to predict with the quality of the league growing. The models out there can become even more precise and that’s what we are utilising today.

One of the core features of FiveThirtyEight is its use of predictive models. These models are created by analyzing large amounts of data and identifying patterns that can be used to make predictions about future events. FiveThirtyEight’s models are often based on sophisticated statistical methods, including regression analysis, machine learning, and Bayesian statistics.

Predicting WSL: the table

In the table above you can see the predictive model visualised of how the model thinks the WSL will end with all the data collected so far.

According to the table for end-of-season probabilities, it looks like Chelsea will win the WSL with 61% chance of winning. Manchester United follows with 21% and then Arsenal with 16%. Manchester City does have a really small chance with 2% – but we can establish that’s a difficult one.

Looking at the qualifying for UWCL we see a different distribution from the percentages. Chelsea has a 97% chance of qualifying, Manchester United has an 82% chance, Arsenal has a 78% chance and Manchester City has a 43% chance. This means the fight for the three places with four teams is tighter than the title race.

Looking at the bottom of the league we can see that three teams are in real danger of relegation. Leicester City has a 58% chance of getting relegated, Brighton and Hove Albion has a 23% chance of getting relegated and Reading has a 16% chance of getting relegated.

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